Euro growth forecast for December. Nervous December

The eurozone continues to be in a fever - in addition to the threat of deflation and low economic growth, EU countries are trying to overcome the consequences of Brexit. In addition, one of the key problems remains the accommodation of migrants.

To stimulate the economy, the ECB maintained a record low policy rate and kept its quantitative easing program in place. However, the euro's position remains vulnerable in the near term.

European problems

Eurozone countries have faced significant difficulties. Despite the expansion of the quantitative easing policy, inflation at the end of 2016 is expected to be 0.2%, which is ten times less than the target value of 2%. GDP growth in the next three years will remain at the level of 1.6-1.7%, which also causes concern among analysts. The threat of deflation is forcing the European Central Bank to continue measures to stimulate the economy.

The ECB discount rate remains at a minimum level of 0%, while the deposit rate is minus 4%. In addition, the quantitative easing program continues to operate until March next year.

A negative rate indicator puts pressure on the banking sector. As a result, many credit institutions faced financial difficulties. Deutsche Bank was also hit, which threatens the stability of the entire system. In the near future, huge resources may be required to support the financial sector, which will affect the rate of economic growth.

In addition to the economy, the eurozone's problems are related to the UK's exit from the EU and the migration crisis. EU countries cannot agree on the conditions for the placement of migrants, which increases contradictions between EU members. Analysts also predict significant losses in trade volumes after the final exit of Foggy Albion. In such conditions, the continued existence of the European Union is under threat, which affects investor sentiment.

As a result, the position of the European currency came under pressure, which is reflected in the euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016. At the same time, much will depend on the oil market and Russian budget indicators.

Exchange rate dynamics

Representatives of APECON predict further weakening of the euro until the end of the year. As a result, currency quotes will reach 64-66 rubles/euro. The Russian currency will continue to regain lost ground amid rising oil prices. Problems with filling the budget may prevent the strengthening of the ruble. In addition, experts do not rule out a new collapse in prices on the “black gold” market.

Significant expenses for social sphere and defense forces the government to increase the budget deficit. Despite the reduced indexation of pensions, officials were unable to meet the target deficit of 3%.

The growing deficit increases the burden on the Reserve Fund. As a result, existing reserves will be exhausted at the beginning of next year, the Ministry of Finance predicts. An additional source of financing is internal borrowing, but completely solving the problem of the budget deficit using this instrument is very problematic. In addition, the debt burden on the regions is increasing, which can lead to local defaults.

A proven way to solve the budget deficit problem is to moderately weaken the ruble. As a result, the authorities will be able to accumulate additional ruble liquidity, which is necessary to finance expenditures. Budget revenues from energy exports will also increase. According to expert forecasts, the government may weaken the Russian currency to 70-73 rubles/euro, which will help in resolving the budget issue.

More significant fluctuations in currency quotes will become a reality if there is another decline in prices on the oil market. Despite attempts by exporters to stabilize oil production, excessive volumes of raw material production remain on the “black gold” market. In addition, the preliminary agreement of the OPEC countries is under threat, given the position of Iraq and Iran and the reluctance of major suppliers to reduce oil production.

In such conditions, experts do not rule out a new collapse in oil prices, which will deal a blow to the positions of the Russian currency. Reducing the cost of “black gold” to $30 per barrel. will result in a devaluation of the ruble to 80-85 rubles/euro.

The forecast for the euro exchange rate in December 2016 depends on trends in the oil market, the state of the budget and the dynamics of the eurozone economy. The optimistic scenario involves the strengthening of the ruble to 64-66 rubles/euro. Under the baseline scenario, the government can weaken the ruble to 70-73 rubles/euro, which will help solve the problem of financing the budget deficit. If the cost of “black gold” drops to $30/barrel, then the euro exchange rate will return to the range of 80-85 rubles/euro.

When voicing forecasts for the end of 2016, many experts do not want to say how much they think the euro will cost. Indeed, in the current conditions it is easy to make mistakes. Many financiers say that the euro currency will be relatively stable, but the value of the ruble may fluctuate noticeably.

After all, the price of “wood” is influenced by sanctions, political disagreements among world leaders, and the cost of oil. The Russian currency may become even cheaper if the downward trend in oil prices continues. And this cannot be ruled out, because Iran has returned to the market. In addition, it is difficult to predict what the situation on the stock exchanges will be in the last month of the year. After all, few could have predicted the August collapse.

You can find out the euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016 from expert forecasting agents. True, they change their assumptions depending on the current situation. If in July they said that the euro currency would cost no more than 61.4 rubles, then by the end of August their opinion had changed significantly. The minimum possible cost of the euro, in their opinion, will be 76.07 rubles. They do not exclude that during December the price per euro may rise to 79 rubles.

Some analysts suggest that even stopping oil prices will not be able to save the “wooden” price from further decline. Although this is a key factor, it is not the only factor that determines the price of the ruble. The state of the economy, the mood within the country, and the political relationships that will exist in December 2016 are also important. We should not forget about the impact of sanctions and confrontations in Ukraine.

In addition, the ruble/euro value ratio is also affected by the increase in the price of European money. Experts say that the Euro is now considered one of the most stable currencies. Therefore, you shouldn’t count on it falling in price by the end of the year. Even latest news, indicating that Russian anti-sanctions may affect the European economy, are unlikely to help the ruble strengthen.

More and more financiers are inclined to believe that the crisis is entering a protracted phase. But at the same time, there remains hope for a slight improvement in the situation in Russia at the end of 2016. But these calculations will be justified if the price of a barrel of oil stops declining. But will its cost increase? Even eminent experts cannot answer this question now.

To stabilize the situation, Russia needs a rebound and an increase in the price to 60 USD/barrel. Only in this case, according to the assumptions of many experts, will it be possible to hope that the price of the euro will be fixed at a level no higher than 68 rubles. If this does not happen, then many do not even want to discuss the topic of whether the euro will fall against the ruble. There is practically no hope for this, and Russians will have to get used to buying this currency for 80 rubles.

This coming Sunday, December 4, a referendum on large-scale constitutional reform will be held in Italy. The initiator of this reform is the government of Matteo Renzi. The ballot will contain the following question: “Do you support the text of the constitutional bill to overcome the system of two equal chambers of parliament, to reduce the operating costs of institutions, to abolish the National Council for Economics and Labor and to revise Chapter 5 of Part 2 of the Constitution?”

Matteo Renzi himself in his comments repeatedly linked his political career with the results of this referendum, stating that if the result of the vote is “No”, he is ready to resign. According to a November SWG poll, Renzi's Democratic Party is the leading political force in the country, with about 32% support. In second place is the “5 Star Movement” with support at 27.3% (SWG). Third place is shared by Berlusconi's Forward Italy movement and the Northern League nationalists. All political forces occupying 2nd and 3rd places in popularity are against the proposals of the government of Matteo Renzi.

The risk is this: if Matteo Renzi, in the event of a “No” result in this referendum, actually resigns, the main beneficiary of this decision will be the populist parties, which promise to hold, in turn, a referendum on Italy’s exit from the eurozone.

Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016

How might this referendum affect the euro exchange rate? Below is the opinion of experts from several large world-famous banks.

Morgan Stanley. Italy is expected to vote “No” in the referendum, but this does not necessarily mean that the 5 Star Movement will come to power, nor does it mean that Italy will be closer to a referendum on leaving the Eurozone. The "no" result of the referendum should have a muted impact on the euro for a number of reasons. The main one is: with this voting result, we are unlikely to get early elections (earlier than those planned for 2018).

Overall, we expect moderate weakness from the euro in case of “No”. If the result is unexpected and Italy votes “Yes,” we recommend using a possible increase in the euro/dollar exchange rate for sales in the area of ​​1.0800.

Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Credit Suisse. If the referendum vote is No, it will likely have a negative impact on the euro. Yes, such a voting result will not necessarily lead to the resignation of the Renzi government, but it will increase fears about the possibility of such an outcome. The Italian "No" in this referendum could have a political impact on the elections in Germany and France, which will take place in 2017.

However, if the financing needs of the Italian banking industry are not ignored, a “No” referendum could lead to widening credit spreads and tightening financial conditions, which in turn could affect the sentiment of the European Central Bank (ECB) and its desire to extend the period of accommodative monetary policy.

A "Yes" result would be a small positive effect for the single currency. The euro will not be able to extract large dividends from such an outcome, since risks from the elections in Germany and France, the uncertainty of the Brexit process and the prospects for the ECB's monetary policy loom on the horizon.

Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. If the Italian public rejects Matteo Renzi's reforms (voting "No"), which is now the most expected event, the single currency will come under pressure. The euro/dollar exchange rate will have the potential to break through the lows of March 2015 at 1.0458, which will open the door to achieving parity (1.0000) before the end of this year. Market participants will be concerned about possible early elections and the fact that Eurosceptics from the 5 Star Movement have good support in opinion polls.

If the result of the referendum is “Yes”, then this will be a temporary relief for the euro, since the risk of an opposite outcome of the referendum is partly built into market prices. In this case, we will not be surprised if the euro/dollar rate rises to 1.0850 in the short term. But prices will not stay at this level for long.

BNP Paribas. Published polls public opinion indicate that the result of the referendum is likely to be “No”. However, we believe that with this outcome of the vote, the euro's weakness will be very limited. We do not expect a prolonged period of political instability. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to continue in this post. In more in general terms, the euro should also not come under significant pressure. A striking example is the Greek debt crisis in the summer of 2015.

Unlike the European debt crisis of 2010-2012, the euro did not experience selling pressure. In fact, the exchange rate of the single currency has even increased. Since the single currency has long been used as financing for carry trades, the emergence of situations in which investors get rid of risky assets leads to the fact that the euro has to be bought to close the carry trade. At the same time, the single currency retains enormous support from the eurozone current account surplus.

Euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Barclays. The Italian referendum is an important political event this week. But the “No” result, in our opinion, will not significantly affect the dynamics of the euro/dollar exchange rate. Polls show a majority of voters oppose Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's proposals. If the result of the referendum is indeed “No”, then Renzi will resign. While the dollar has been the main driver of the euro's recent decline, we believe much of the single currency's weakness was due to the market pricing in various European political risks for the coming year. Including elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

If the result of the referendum is unexpectedly “Yes”, a sustained upward movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate looks unlikely. The likelihood of reforms increases, but if Renzi wins the next elections. At the same time, the likelihood of a radical outcome and abandonment of the euro in this case may increase if not Matteo Renzi’s party, but the “5 Star Movement” wins the next elections.

What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow?

The Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow is 69.37 rub., the minimum rate is 68.40, and the maximum is 70.34 rubles. The current exchange rate is Euro 69.13. Today the rate is down by 0.12% compared to yesterday's close of 69.21.

Will the Euro rise or fall in a week?

Euro exchange rate forecast in a week 68.66 rub., minimum 67.70, maximum 69.62 rub. Thus, for a week the Euro exchange rate will fall on 0.47 rub. relative to the exchange rate now at 69.13 rubles. For more detailed forecast by day for the week, see the table below.

What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for December?

Euro exchange rate forecast for December 67.50-71.84, at the end of December 68.46 rub. At the beginning of December, the Euro exchange rate was 70.94, i.e. the change for the month will be -3.5%.

What Euro rate is forecast for January?

Euro exchange rate forecast for January - 67.77 r. at the end of January, the minimum rate during the month is 66.28, the maximum is 69.18. Monthly change -1.0%.

Euro exchange rate forecast for each day in the table

What is the Euro forecast for February?

Euro exchange rate forecast for February is in the range of 66.30-68.18, at the end of February 67.24 rub. Monthly change -0.8%.

What will the Euro exchange rate be in 2020?

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020 year: rate at the end of December 2020 - 63.29 rub. And throughout the year the rate will fluctuate in the range of 62.40-69.18.

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2019, 2020 and 2021

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Hello, dear blog guests, today I decided to tell you about the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016. As always, experts have different points of view, but they all agree on one thing: the ruble exchange rate in December depends on the behavior of the price of black gold.

At the moment, the dollar costs 65 rubles. Some experts say that the ruble will strengthen in December, while others will depreciate. But due to the fact that the ruble has been slowly depreciating over the past 2 weeks, we can confidently say that this trend will continue in the future. Many experts say that November and December are the last months of calm, when the ruble will gradually depreciate.

It is surprising that at the moment there is an increase in the price of oil on the market, which, in turn, should stop the depreciation of the ruble. Raiffeisenbank experts are confident that the ruble will not strengthen due to the sale of the state stake in Rosneft. Such development is only possible if the company itself buys back its shares. As a result, there will be a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, which will lead to a devaluation of the ruble.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Experts assure that in December the dollar/ruble pair will experience short-term fluctuations. The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said that privatization will not affect the foreign exchange market.

Another factor that could lead to destabilization in the market is an increase in geopolitical tensions. Instead of lifting existing sanctions, the US and EU countries are planning to introduce new sanctions. New sanctions will arise as a result of the conflict in Syria. Another factor that will not allow the currency to strengthen is the unresolved conflict in Ukraine.

Experts are confident that the gradual weakening of the ruble will only have a positive effect on the state’s economy. As a result of the depreciation of the currency, the country reduces the budget deficit, and Russian entrepreneurs gain a competitive advantage.

In general, almost all dollar exchange rate forecasts for December 2016 are pessimistic. The price of the American currency in the last month of the year will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles.

This forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 will only come true if the price of oil does not fall to 30. Until November 15, the cost of black gold only increased - to 45.42 dollars per barrel.

If the price of black gold reaches 50, then the ruble may reach 62. At the moment, the rise in the cost of oil is due to the efforts of OPEC countries, which are aimed at reducing production. Today, Qatar, Venezuela and Algeria are looking for ways to regulate contradictions between large oil-producing countries. Earlier, the Minister of Economy of Saudi Arabia called on all OPEC members to come to a common denominator to reduce oil production. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for November 30, 2016.

Fresh forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016

There is still instability in the EU. Eurozone countries still cannot cope with the consequences of Brexit. The euro/dollar pair continues a downward trend, which will last until the end of 2016.

Forecasts for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 are similar in that this month the trend towards a depreciation of the euro will continue. At the moment the EU has a lot of problems, including emigrants. To improve the current situation, the ECB kept the interest rate at a record low and also kept the quantitative easing program in operation.

At the moment, European countries are going through not the best of times. Inflation at the end of the current year is 0.2%, which is 10 times lower than the target value of two percent. GDP growth over the next three years will remain at 1.6%, which also scares many experts. The threat of deflation is prompting the ECB to continue measures to improve the economy. The bank's discount rate remains low, but the deposit rate is minus 4%. A negative rate has a negative impact on the banking industry, as a result of which many credit institutions are not in the most favorable position. IN deplorable condition Deutsche Bank is also located, and this is already a threat to the entire stability of the system. Experienced experts say that huge sums may soon be required to support the financial sector, which will negatively impact the economy.

The EU is also suffering because of the UK's exit, as well as because of the huge number of emigrants, which only increases the divisions between EU members. Experts claim that after the UK’s final exit from the EU, trade volumes will sharply decrease. This development threatens the continued existence of the European Union, which, of course, affects the mood of investors.

The latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 states that the euro will continue to depreciate in the future. According to APECON, in December the euro will cost 64-68 rubles. If the price of oil also increases in the future, then the cost of the euro in December could be 64 rubles.

Despite numerous attempts by APECON to reduce oil production, there is still a lot of black gold on the market. In addition, the previously reached agreement between major oil-producing countries is under great threat due to the position of Iran and Iraq. Experienced analysts do not rule out another collapse in oil prices, which, of course, will deal a blow to the Russian economy and lead to a devaluation of the national currency.

In December 2016, the euro exchange rate against all world currencies will decline. But what will happen to our currency at the end of the year depends on the future price of oil. The latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 states that in December the euro will cost 62-68 rubles.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a guide to action.

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