Highest mortality rate. Countries with the highest death rates

Natural population decline today is typical for most civilized countries of the world. Russia is no exception. According to Rosstat, the natural population decline for the first half of 2013 amounted to 52,852 people. The total number of deaths is 956,026 people.

Main causes of mortality in Russia

Let's turn to statistics. The first line is invariably occupied by mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, which account for 55% of the total number of deaths in the country. Diseases of the circulatory system alone in the first half of this year caused the death of 525,431 people! Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases are the leading causes of mortality in Russia. They account for 29.1% and 16.9% of deaths from all causes, respectively. Just think, coronary heart disease claimed the lives of 278,395 people, cerebrovascular diseases - 161,658 people.

For comparison, 143,145 people died due to neoplasms (15% of the total number of deaths from all causes), 37,696 people (3.9%) died from respiratory diseases, and 42,756 people (4.5%) died from digestive diseases. ).

External factors Mortality as a cause of mortality lags significantly behind diseases of the circulatory system. They claimed the lives of 82,941 people. This is 8.7% of the total number of deaths. In the first half of the year, transport-related fatalities accounted for 11,242 deaths, or 1.2%. Alcohol poisoning caused the death of 5,272 people (0.6%), suicide - 14,039 people (1.5%).

Risk factors

Obviously, Russia is dying from diseases of the cardiovascular system. Coronary heart disease (including myocardial infarction) and cerebrovascular diseases, which are caused by atherosclerosis and hypertension, are firmly in the lead in the structure of overall mortality in Russia.

Do not think that disturbances in the functioning of the heart and blood vessels are associated only with age-related changes and hereditary factors. According to an analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in twelve regions Russian Federation, published in the Russian Journal of Cardiology, 60% of mortality from such diseases is due to other causes, usually called risk factors. These include:

• arterial hypertension;
• hypercholesterolemia;
• disturbance of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism;
• obesity;
• smoking;
• excessive alcohol consumption;
• decline physical activity.

The high prevalence of risk factors and insufficient awareness of the population are the main reasons for the current situation.

Half of these risks are due to malnutrition! World organization health care is sounding the alarm. A WHO bulletin published in July 2013 noted that in some countries, deaths from cardiovascular disease among people consuming foods high in saturated animal fats, trans fats, calories and salt are almost twice as high as in humans , adhering to healthy eating

One of the main risk factors for the development and mortality from cardiovascular diseases associated with poor nutrition is increased blood cholesterol levels. An increase in cholesterol levels provokes the appearance of atherosclerotic plaques on the walls of blood vessels. This is a real risk of heart attacks, strokes and thrombosis, which can be fatal. According to the State Research Center for Preventive Medicine, about 60% of the adult population of Russia have an increase in the concentration of total cholesterol, and in 20% this level corresponds to a high risk of developing cardiovascular diseases. This means that 60% of the country’s working population needs at least dietary assistance, and 15% - 20% drug treatment.

The national scientific report “All About Cholesterol” noted that this problem receives undeservedly little attention. RAMS recommends not to exceed daily consumption saturated fat in the amount of 10% of food calories, and cholesterol - 300 mg/day. The report specifically noted that saturated animal fats should be replaced with monounsaturated and polyunsaturated (omega-3, omega-6) fats and oils. This will reduce cholesterol levels by 10-20%. Increasing the consumption of vegetables and fruits, as well as plant stanols and sterols in food, can reduce cholesterol levels by 10% and reduce the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases.

The WHO Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health also recommends limiting energy intake from fat and shifting intake from saturated fats and trans fatty acids to unsaturated fats.

A healthy diet should include consumption of vegetables, fruits, nuts, fish and vegetable oils. Limiting foods such as butter, fast food, sausage and sausage products, as well as reducing the consumption of salt, fatty dairy products, red meat and industrial flour and confectionery products can save you from heart and vascular diseases.

Remember, poor nutrition is the main cause of vascular blockage, which can be fatal.

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In demographics

The following types of causes of death are distinguished:

• Endogenous (internal influences)
• Exogenous (external influences)
• Quasi-endogenous (cumulative endogenous influences)

World mortality trends

• - - closely associated with a radical reduction in mortality, a demographic explosion in developed European countries, including Russia

• mortality has retreated to older ages;
• endogenous and quasi-endogenous were added to exogenous (external) causes of death
• in all countries in first place among the reasons - cardiovascular diseases(together with oncology 70%); followed by respiratory diseases, diabetes mellitus, accidents (injuries, murders, suicide) [ ]
• a significant gap between male and female mortality associated with legislative (conscript army, lower health care costs for men, other legislative acts affecting the quality and life expectancy of men) and social discrimination (8 out of 10 victims of violence are men, propaganda and justification of violence against men in the media, sexist principles obliging men to work longer more women, and in traumatic and hazardous enterprises, the number of suicides is four times higher than for women due to social pressure, discriminatory laws and impunity for hatspeech against men. As a result, the mortality rate in men is 27.9% higher than in women (9 men to 7 women).

Currently

Infant mortality rates

The infant mortality rate measures the mortality rate of children under 1 year of age. Infant mortality - from 0 to 1 year; children's - from 1 year to 15 years. The infant mortality rate stands out among other mortality indicators both in terms of its magnitude (the probability of death in the first year of life is approximately the same as for people over 55 years of age), its calculation methods, and its social significance. Along with other indicators, the infant mortality rate serves as a important characteristic living conditions and cultural level of the population.

Historical types of mortality

• archaic, exogenous - very high mortality, mainly due to external causes: epidemics, disasters, famine, accidents, etc. Very early death is characteristic. Life expectancy is 20-22 years. The infant mortality rate is 300-350 ‰.
• traditional - characteristic of traditional societies, up to the 19th - early 20th centuries. Exogenous mortality factors dominate. Social control over mortality has increased - the development of medicine. Increasing life expectancy to 30-35 years. Normal mortality.
• modern - endogenous causes predominate: degenerative diseases, mortality moves to older ages. Life expectancy is greatly increasing and the infant mortality rate is falling.

MORTALITY

Concept and mortality rates

Mortality is the second element of the natural movement of the population after birth and represents a mass statistical process consisting of many single deaths occurring in different ages. Mortality data are needed both to analyze past population trends and to develop population projections. The latter, as is known, are used in almost all spheres of human activity.

A system of indicators is used to measure mortality. The very first and simplest is absolute number of deaths . However, this indicator, like all absolute demographic indicators, strongly depends on both the total population and its structure, primarily gender and age.

The first relative indicator of the mortality rate is general mortality rate , which is equal to the ratio of the number of deaths over a period of time to the average population over that period:

where is the overall mortality rate;

Absolute number of deaths for the period;

Period length;

Average population.

The overall mortality rate is both special coefficient , since all people are mortal. Just like the crude birth rate, the crude mortality rate is a fairly rough and approximate measure of the mortality rate. Its value is strongly influenced by the gender and age structure of the population. In addition, the value of the crude mortality rate depends on the birth rate: other things being equal, the higher the birth rate, the higher the crude mortality rate. The reason for this is that the mortality rate of children under one year of age is higher than in many other ages, and as the birth rate rises, the proportion of this age category increases.

The influence of sex, age and other structures is eliminated through the use of partial mortality rates. As in the case of studying fertility, among private mortality rates the most important place belongs to age-specific coefficients , which are calculated separately for men and women as the ratio of the number of deaths at a particular age to the average annual number of men or women at that age:

where is the age-specific mortality rate,

Number of deaths by age x,

Period length,

Average population (male or female) age x years.

Analysis of age-specific mortality rates allows us to identify differences in mortality rates for individual age groups. A certain disadvantage of age-specific mortality rates is their large number, as well as some susceptibility to the influence of age accumulation.

Among age-specific mortality rates, a special place is occupied by infant mortality rate - an indicator characterizing the mortality of children under one year of age. It should be noted that mortality under the age of one year sharply exceeds mortality at other ages except the oldest.

The methods for calculating the infant mortality rate differ from the methods for calculating all other age-specific rates. By its nature, the infant mortality rate is, strictly speaking, not a coefficient, but a probability. When calculating it, the number of deaths of children under one year of age is divided not by their average annual number, but by the number of live births. The fact is that for this age group the concept of average annual number is practically indefinable. In addition, the probabilities of death at the beginning and at the end of the first year of life are very different from each other.

The simplest method, which gives the roughest, approximate estimate, is to calculate the infant mortality rate using the following formula:

The number of deaths under the age of one year in the period;

This formula is usually used in cases where the birth rate in two adjacent periods is approximately the same, since some of the deceased children under one year of age were born in the previous period, and if the birth rate differs significantly, the infant mortality rate will not show the true situation in the question under study.

If there is data on the distribution of children who died under the age of one year, according to the year of their birth, then each set of deceased children under the age of one year is correlated with the corresponding number of births:

,

(5.4)

where is the infant mortality rate;

The number of live births in the period;

The number of deaths under the age of one year from the number of births during the period;

The number of live births in the period.

Often, data on the distribution of deceased children under one year of age by generation of those born is not included in publications. Then it is enough to use the method of approximate assessment of the infant mortality rate, which is based on the empirical formula proposed by the German mathematician and demographer J. Raths:

.

(5.5)

The designations are the same as in formula 5.4, and are weights selected based on the distribution of deceased children. If the distribution were uniform, i.e. if the probability of dying were the same for any month of the first year of life, then . In reality, this is not true: the likelihood of death decreases with age. How older child, the less likely it is that he will die before reaching the age of one year, while simultaneously with the decrease in infant mortality there is a shift to the highest early ages. Therefore, over time, the weighting coefficients in the Raths formula have to be changed. Rats accepted and. Currently, these weights are most often taken equal to and , respectively. IN developed countries, where infant mortality rates are low, the values ​​and are taken as weights.

Mortality tables

Mortality tables are numerical models of mortality that serve to characterize its general level and age characteristics in different populations. They represent a system of age-ordered and interconnected series of numbers, which in their totality describe the process of extinction of a certain theoretical generation with a fixed initial number.

In demography, there are mortality tables for real and conditional generations. Depending on the time scale step, there are full And brief tables . In full tables, the intervals are equal to one year, in short ones - five years (much less often ten years).

The mortality table indicators are divided into interval And cumulative . The former characterize mortality at a given age interval, the latter - for the entire period of life before or after a given exact age.

The indicators of mortality tables are interconnected by certain relationships. All of them can be calculated from almost any of them, but usually the initial one is taken as the one that most simply and clearly characterizes the mortality process and is most easily obtained from mortality statistics. This indicator is the interval probability of dying at age () years, most naturally associated with age-specific mortality rates. Typically, the construction of mortality tables begins with this indicator. In addition, the entire history of the development of methods for such construction can be considered as an improvement in methods for the transition from age-specific mortality rates to tabulated interval probabilities of death at age () years.

The following designations are used in mortality tables:

Number of years surviving to age;

Numbers of people dying at age (in the age range from to);

Probability of dying at age (in the age interval from to);

The probability for survivors to survive to age ;

Number of people living at age (in the age range from to);

Length of age interval;

The number of people living at age and older (the number of person-years of life ahead for a given generation);

Average life expectancy for adults.

In mortality tables, the initial population of a generation is assumed to be constant over time and equal to one, and it is traced how, with the transition from age to age, the initial totality of a generation of those born decreases as a result of death from 1 to 0. It follows that in mortality tables all numbers except the number of births , equal to 1, is less than this value. To avoid a large number of fractional numbers, the number of births in practical calculations is taken equal to 100,000 or 10,000 (depending on the desired accuracy of the calculations). This number is called table root .

Let's consider the basic relationships of mortality tables. When moving from age to age, the number of survivors will successively decrease by the amount of the number of people dying at age, i.e. :

The probability of surviving to age () for those who have lived to age will be determined as the ratio of the number of people surviving to age to the number of people surviving to age:

In mortality tables, survival numbers show the proportion of survivors at the beginning of each subsequent period. However, in fact, during the transition from one age to the next, the size of a generation decreases continuously, so the number of people living at age is some average value between the values ​​of the numbers of people surviving and .

The number of people living in the interval () years is defined as the sum of those who live the full age interval () years - and those who die in this interval, contributing to a certain part - . From here

The values ​​serve as the basis for further calculations of the last series of mortality tables - the average expected life expectancy (). Average expected life expectancy is the number of years that one person will live on average from a given generation of births, provided that throughout the life of this generation the probability of death in each age group will remain unchanged at the level of the billing period:

As a rule, it decreases with age. The only exception is age 0 years in the complete life table, when< из-за высокой младенческой смертности. Это называется парадоксом младенческой смертности. В высокоразвитых странах с очень низкими значениями младенческой смертности этот парадокс не действует.

The construction of mortality tables is, in principle, a simple, but rather labor-intensive computational procedure. It includes several stages:

− calculation of the values ​​of the initial indicator for all ages based on mortality statistics (distribution of deaths by age);

− processing of a number of values ​​to eliminate distortions caused by age accumulation, if necessary;

− interpolation of a series of values ​​to eliminate possible omissions or extrapolation to calculate values ​​for the highest values;

− calculation of other functions of mortality tables.

General view mortality tables are presented in tables 5.1 and 5.2.

Main methodological problem the construction of mortality tables, as already mentioned, is associated with the transition from real indicators of age-specific mortality to tabulated probabilities of dying at a given age. To move from age-specific mortality rates to mortality probabilities, one of the formulas is used:

(5.14)

Formula 5.14 is derived from the assumption that within the interval the probability of death is either constant or varies linearly. The second option (5.15) is based on the hypothesis of an exponential change in the probability of death over an age interval.

TABLE 5.1 AND 5.2

Let's consider concrete example calculation of a short mortality table. The main difference between short mortality tables, as already noted, and full ones is that the length of the age interval () exceeds 1 year. Most often it is 5 years. However, even here, in the youngest age interval (from 0 to 4 years), the age of up to one year is usually distinguished, since it has its own specifics due to the processes of infant mortality.

An important point When calculating summary mortality tables, it is necessary to determine the value for the youngest age interval. Typically, it is assumed that (age interval up to 1 year) is equal to 0.1 for countries with low mortality and 0.3 for countries with high mortality. The value for ages 1-4 is taken to be 0.4, all other values ​​of this parameter are 0.5.4) The last step is to calculate the average life expectancy for each age interval (). For calculations, formula 5.13 is used.

The calculation result is given in Table 5.3.

To calculate the full mortality table, the same algorithm is used if the source data are age-specific mortality rates. In cases where the conditions for calculation are the values ​​of , the corresponding relation 5.10 is used to bring the problem to the form discussed earlier. For complete life tables, the age interval is 1 year. In this regard, the value is calculated using a simpler formula:

TABLE 5.3

Mortality by cause

Quantitative indicators of the mortality rate and its dynamics are an important tool for analyzing the demographic situation in the country. However, quantitative indicators alone, even if extremely accurate and independent of the demographic structure of the population, are completely insufficient for full characteristics both mortality itself and the socio-economic situation, working and living conditions of the population, its lifestyle, behavior related to health and life expectancy, environmental and sanitary conditions. Mortality rates and mortality table indicators must be supplemented with qualitative indicators characterizing the causes of mortality.

In other words, we're talking about on the analysis of the structure of mortality by cause. The importance of this aspect of mortality analysis is due to the close connection between the causes from which people die, their living and working conditions, the level of health care development, and general level socio-economic development, and finally, with the behavior of people themselves, with their attitude towards their own health, towards life and death.

Under causes of death understand the diseases, conditions, or injuries that caused or contributed to death, and the circumstances of the accident that caused the fatal injury or violent death.

Mortality rates by cause are general and age-specific rates. Crude mortality rates by cause of death are calculated as the ratio of the number of deaths from the specified causes of mortality to the average annual population:

Related information.

Population is an extremely important factor for human development. We live and don’t even think about how many people die per day in the world and how many are born. Isn't it time to pay attention to this?

Population on the planet

Today there are seven billion people. China has the largest number of them, with India in second place. The USA took third place.

The average life expectancy today is about 67 years. Despite the fact that women live 12 years longer on average. However, the lives of people in the Central African Republic tend to be the shortest.

Statistics say that an average of 55 million people die each year around the world. Sounds quite threatening. But also inexorable statistics report that 140 million children are born every year. In total, 108 billion have ever lived on Earth.

Already today there is a tendency towards “overpopulation” of the planet with people. The standard of living is constantly rising in developed countries and is steadily approaching zero in third world countries. But despite this, scientists began to sound the alarm about the overpopulation of the Earth.

Mortality

Have you ever wondered how many people die every day in the world? Of course not. And in Russia?

Data related to the population census are regularly published, and much less often - with mortality, and most importantly, with the causes of death. Not long ago the following information was announced:

• On average, 150 thousand people die every day around the world. And only a third of infectious diseases. In Russia, at the same time, 233 people die per hour every day.
• The most common cause of death in countries considered more developed was coronary heart disease, heart attacks, strokes and road accidents. In countries considered to be underdeveloped, deaths are more often caused by hunger and chronic malnutrition.

The most common causes of death

If we talk only about developed countries with a high standard of living, then the most common reasons deaths include strokes, heart disease, cancer, road accidents, AIDS and severe lung diseases (pneumonia, tuberculosis).

From such data it follows that people often try to kill themselves and quite successfully. While tracking how many people die per day in the world, scientists found one interesting thing: They are often to blame for their own deaths. The laureates alone are worth it!

If we talk about the countries of the “third world,” then hunger tops the list of “killers” - the main problem of countries with a low standard of living. At the same time, on the other side of the world, doctors are tired of treating obesity.

Fertility

Despite all these terrible figures, it is worth remembering the general growth of demographics. Around the world, an average of 15,347 children are born every hour, 163 of them in Russia. How many people die per day in the world? 150 million. How many babies are born per hour? 15 thousand. So humanity is not yet in danger of extinction.

Forecasts

At this rate of demographic growth, by 2083 the world's population will reach ten billion. Of course, this is just wonderful, but why then are scientists so worried about the already mentioned overpopulation?

The problem here is that the higher the population density, the more disease there will be. This fact has been proven more than once by various numerous experiments. Too many people will provoke outbreaks of diseases and infections, and it will be almost impossible to fight them, not to mention the fact that throughout the entire evolution of Homo sapiens, we have never learned to use the Earth’s resources wisely. The oil reserves that have already been extracted and stored today will, if used wisely, last for more than fifty years, but production has not been stopped. The same can be said about clean fresh water and coal.

Among other things, no matter how good and wonderful our lives are, the problem of hunger has not yet been solved. There is enough food for everyone, people just don’t know how to share. How many people die every day of hunger? How much from overeating? Should we raise the birth rate?

What if one randomly selected person dies every second on Earth? How will this affect the global population?

Guy Petzal

Every second, 1.8 people die and 4.2 are born. Petzal's plan would increase the number of deaths to 2.8.

Random selection will have a huge impact, causing a third of all deaths, but the population will still continue to grow.

At a rate of one death per second, the chance of any person dying in a year would be 0.464%. In other words, the impact would be 4.64 per 1,000 people per year (or 464 out of 100,000).

About 20 countries have mortality rates less than 4.64 per 1000. The list is quite unusual: it includes, for example, the Dominican Republic, Brunei, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Maldives and Paraguay. In these countries, Guy's proposal will be responsible for most of the deaths.

Mortality rates are rising in all countries. At least it should, if you calculate it mathematically. It seems intuitively obvious that a mortality rate below 10 out of 1,000 is unattainable. If less than one in a hundred people die each year (and enough are born to maintain the human population), then the average person should live more than 100 years before dying - something completely different from what we actually see.

In countries with high life expectancy, mortality will increase in the future. The US is also on this list with a mortality rate of 8.4 per 1,000, and it will rise as the age of the baby boomer generation [ # ] . ↲ A baby boomer is a person who was born between 1946 and 1964, during the post-World War II baby boom. - Note lane

Such mortality is not enough for population growth to give way to population decline, but not so long ago the opposite was true. In 1950, the world population was only 2.52 billion. In this scenario, one death per second would be equivalent to a death rate of 12.5 people per 1,000, which is three times more than according to 2013 data. At the beginning of the 20th century, such mortality would have been enough for the population to begin to decline. In a few decades the situation would be similar. Of course, if people are dying more often, then this fact will definitely affect the birth rate, since people will change their attitudes in response to increased mortality, so the end result will be much more complex.

In the US, Petzal would be the leading cause of death in women aged 1 to 55 years and in men aged 1 to 48 years. Currently, about 96% of children survive to age 40, but in Guy's scenario only 80% would survive.

When will these deaths happen?

If we take the total number of planes that are in the air at any given moment, then there is a chance that pilots will die during the flight. Of course, such an eventuality would not be catastrophic since large commercial airliners are operated by multiple crew members who can take over control.

With cars it's a different matter. Since 10 million Americans drive a car at any given time, 127 of them will die in accidents every day (and a small number of passengers, pedestrians and other drivers). Interestingly, this number is only slightly higher than the number of Americans who already die in car accidents. (This number has been declining, as has the percentage of the population, since the 1960s, and as the distance traveled since the 1920s.)

About 50 million outpatient surgeries take place every year. If they were primarily performed by the same surgeons, and each operation lasted half an hour, about 13 surgeons would die mid-operation (as would 13 patients). These are scary thoughts. But if you put it into perspective, this is comparable to the number of surgeons performing surgery on the wrong part of the body or on the wrong patient every two days. And our scenario is not as scary as reality is.

What about our leaders?

Members of Congress die in their offices at the rate of two or three per year, or five during the term of Congress. But usually this value is greater than what is described in this strange florid document. 29 members of Congress died in 1939 and 1940, during the two-year session of the 76th Congress. In Guy's scenario, the current level would be around 10 per Congress. This is tragic, but certainly lower than the death rate seen in the 1960s.

Overall, the losses will be huge, but not devastating for our species. Eventually the global mortality rate will be 100% - everyone dies.

...Or is it not so? Strictly speaking, the observed mortality rate is about 93% - something like 93% of people die. This means that the mortality rate of people in all of humanity - those who were not members of the Beatles - is much higher than the 50% mortality rate of those who were.

I'm waiting for this important [ source] fact [ doubtful] will pave the way [ source] for a large contribution [ doubtful] to important [ source][doubtful] research.